「ゾーン内のコンタクト率が下位3%？」阪神タイガースの佐藤輝明を海外ファンが徹底分析！メジャー挑戦への打撃評価を巡り激論【海外の反応】

確か一番好きな選手はブライス・ハーパーだって言ってた気がする。

He said his favorite player is Bryce Harper iirc

愛犬の名前がリグレーだって聞いたぞ。

Heard his dog's name is Wrigley

その気持ちめちゃくちゃ分かるわ。

I feel it

あいにく見逃し配信が見られる場所は知らないんだよね。セ・リーグはマーケティングの不手際で有名だし。俺がライブ中継を見てるのはここだけどね https://mlbbox.me/japan-npb-streams 。

Unfortunately, I don't know where you can watch replays. The Central League is notoriously terrible at marketing itself. This is where I watch live matches .

日本シリーズに向けて助かるよ。書いてくれてありがとうな。

Appreciate it for the japan series anyway. Thanks and for the write up too

ヤンキースはそろそろ、アーロン・ジャッジの後の右翼手を真剣に考え始めなきゃいけないからな。

The Yankees have to start thinking about life after Aaron Judge, at least as an everyday right fielder.

ベン・ライスが一塁で目途が立たない限り、当分それはないだろうね。

Unless Ben Rice becomes viable at first base, this isn’t happening anytime soon.

心当たりのあるチームがあるぞ。

I might know a team

デトロイトはサードのfWARが全体7位、右翼のfWARが27位、ファーストが24位だな。

※fWAR：FanGraphs版のWAR（総合貢献度）

Detroit is 7th overall in 3B fWAR, 27th overall in RF fWAR, and 24th in 1B fWAR.

うちには完璧にハマるわ。PCA以外の外野陣が全員フリーエージェントだし。

He would be a perfect fit for us. Our entire outfield minus PCA are free agents right now.

ハハハ、間違いなく重要な抜け落ちだったね。
今季のカープ戦のOPSは.762で、通算だと.822だよ。
NPB Scholarの対戦成績セクションを使えば、チームごとの数字を絞り込めるんだ。

※OPS：出塁率と長打率を足した打撃指標

Haha, notable omission for sure.
he has a 762 ops against the carp this year. 822 for his career.
The splits section in NPB scholar allows you to do select results by team played,

佐藤や森下が放った二塁打の中には、世界のどの球場なら入ってたろって確信できる打球が何本もあったからな。風で押し戻されるのがはっきり目に見えるレベルだし。

There have been some doubles Sato and Morishita have hit that I am convinced would have been homers in any other stadium in the world. You can literally see that wind bringing the ball back into play.

今回の分析にはBaseball Scholarの守備走塁価値を使ったんだ。UZRの面白い数字も出回ってた気がするな。どんなデータを持ってるの？めちゃくちゃ興味ある。

※UZR：守備範囲などを点数化した守備指標

I used Baseball Scholar's fielding run value for this analysis. I think I have seen some interesting UZR numbers floating around as well. What data do you have? Very interested.

良い質問だね！平良がメジャーでどう適応するかは、過去の日本人投手ほど確信が持てないんだ。WBCで投げた投手たちみたいなVAAやHAAのデータがないのが理由でね。メジャーに移籍すると直球の伸びが抑えられる傾向を踏まえると、素の球型はIVBが12、HBが5〜7程度でそこまで良くないと予想している。ただ身長の割にリリースポイントの伸び（エクステンション）が大きくて、それは映像でも確認できる。もし低いリリース位置や立ち位置、アームスロットによるVAA/HAAが異次元なら、素の球型を十分に補えるかもしれない。
もう一つの不安要素はNPBの球種追跡の精度の低さだ。平良は球種が多いのにNPBのデータ追跡が粗いから、多くの変化球データが曖昧になっている。
ここ数年のオフシーズンでフロント関係者と話したりメディアの議論を見たりして気づいたのは、MLBフロント陣はNPB選手に関して不正確なデータを持っていることが多いってことだ。平良のMLBでの成否を分ける要素は従来より複雑だから、分析結果が球団ごとに分かれても不思議じゃない。
君が挙げた2つの理由の両方が絡んでいると思うね。ハイレバレッジのリリーフとして期待する球団もあれば、過小評価された先発上位ローテとして見ている球団もあるはずだ。高すぎない価格設定も多くの球団にとって魅力的だしね。

※VAA：ボールがホームベースに届く時の上下の角度（浅いほど直球が浮いて見える）、HAA：ボールがホームベースに届く時の左右の角度（打者から見た横の軌道）、IVB：重力による落下を除いた縦の変化量（回転で生まれる浮き上がり）、HB：横方向の変化量

Good question! I am less certain about how Taira translates than I have been with other Japanese pitchers in the past. That has to do with the fact that I don't have the VAA/HAA data that I do with the guys who have pitched in the WBC. Based on how fastball shape tends to contract when making the move to MLB, I imagine his raw shapes won't be great 12 IVB, 5-7 HB would be my assumption. I have heard the extension is big for his height, which holds up to the eye test. If the VAA/HAA is an outlier, which it could be given his height, how low he gets, where he stands on the rubber, and arm slot, I could see that more than compensating for the raw shape.
Another reason I am quite unsure about how Taira translates is how bad NPB pitch tracking is. Taira throws a million pitches, and NPB pitch tracking is pretty awful; I can say confidently that a lot of his pitch shapes are quite muddled in the uncertainty of tracking.
It has become pretty clear to me over the last couple of offseasons, conversing with people in and around front offices, as well as viewing the media discourse, that a lot of MLB FO's have bad data when it comes to NPB players. I wouldn't be surprised that, given that the characteristics that will make or break Taira's MLB career are less simple than those of others in the past, MLB front office analysis is more varied than for most players who have come over.
I think his interest is a combination of the two factors you touch on. I think it is likely that some teams see him as a potential high-leverage reliever, where he has proven that he can excel, and that other teams see him as a potential underrated front-of-the-rotation starter. The non-exorbitant price tag makes him feasible for many, as you point out.

各球団がどれほど本気で狙ってくるか、その理由がどっちなのかは実際に動くのを待つしかないな。今永の時も球団によって評価がかなり割れてたし。

I guess we will just have to wait and see what happens when teams actually have to show how committed they are to him and if it's for the first or second reason. The difference on Imanaga from teams was a lot like what you said might be there for Taira too.

もう少し付け加えると、2021年や2022年の山本由伸のことを考えてたんだ。当時はお買い得になるって雰囲気があったけど、多くの球団がそう思い始めると価格は跳ね上がる。レッドソックスが吉田を獲得した時も、山本をもっと安く手に入れる計画の一環だったはずだ。2023年後半になっても山本の提示額予想は田中将大の契約を少し超える程度だった。平良の市場も同じようになって、安く買えるわけじゃないと各球団が気づくと思う？

To add a little bit more to what I mean, I'm thinking about Yamamoto in 2021 and 2022. During this time, especially 2022 I remember this air around Yamamoto that he was going to be a steal for someone, but when that many teams think he can be a steal, the price goes up. When the Red Sox got Yoshida it was already supposed to be part of Bloom's plan to get Yamamoto as well, and for a much cheaper price than what he ended up signing. Even during the later parts of 2023 Yamamoto's projections were still much lower at only being higher than Tanaka's contract. Do you think Taira's market might play out like this and more teams will realize there isn't an underrated deal for him?

平良の年齢は山本と同じようにめちゃくちゃ魅力的だよ。滅多にない機会だし、最盛期の年数を確保できるから、長期契約ならどのチームの再建サイクルにも合致する。
もし球団が平良のVAA/HAAやエクステンションデータを持っていれば、市場価値は一気に跳ね上がる可能性があるね。
山本に関する議論で見落とされがちなのが制球力だ。画像解析モデルなどで山本の制球力に確信を持っていたんだと思う。ドキュメンタリーでは8球団が3億ドルを提示したと示唆されていたし、これは業界全体のコンセンサスだ。平良がその点でどう評価されるかはわからないが、ふたつ知っていることがある。
平良は世界で最もデータ志向な投手の一人で、配信者として他のどの投手よりも高次元なピッチング論を語っていること。
そして、平良は長い間アメリカ行きを望んでいたことだ。
メジャー用に戦術を最適化していてもおかしくない。面談で自分自身を強烈にアピールして評価を爆上げさせる展開もあり得るよ。

Taira's age makes him really enticing in the same way Yamamoto was. It's an opportunity that doesn't come along very often, and beyond just getting prime years, it fits basically every team's timeline if the deal is long enough.
If teams have the VAA/HAA and extension data on Taira, which I think Taira might possess, then I could see his market shooting up.
I think an underrated part of the Yamamoto conversation was command. Given what we know now about OpenCommand and projects similar to it, I think it's likely that Orgs had some sort of image-analysing modeling that gave them confidence in Yamamoto's command, beyond just scouting. I think in the Yamamoto doc, they implied 8 teams offered him 300 mil; that's basically industry consensus that he would succeed. It makes a lot more sense if they have this tech.
I don't know how Taira stacks up in that regard. I do know two things.
Taira is one of the most analytically minded pitchers in the world. He is a streamer and talks a higher level of pitching than i think i have heard from any other pitcher.

Taira has wanted to come to the States for a very long time.

I wouldn't be surprised if taira's game is uniquely optimized for the MLB game; he has talked about his fastball usage already being geared for that. I could see a scenario where Taira gets in meetings and is able to pitch himself in a way that really boosts his evaluation.

平良のパーソナリティを見てると、そこは過小評価できないポイントかもな。新しい技術を吸収する姿勢は村上と同じものを感じる。山本にオファーしたチームってどこだったか覚えてる？

Yeah I've seen a little bit of Taira's personality and I think that part might be underrated. He clearly has the attitude that would mesh well with learning new technology just like Murakami did. Do you know what the teams were for Yamamoto? I never knew it was that many.

パっと思い出せる限りだと、ドジャース、ヤンキース、メッツ、フィリーズ、レッドソックス、ジャイアンツ、カブス、レンジャーズかな。出せる球団は全部だね。

Off the top of my head, I might be mixing it up, dodgers, yankees, mets, phillies, redsox, giants, cubs, rangers. Basically any team that could afford him.

村上なんて下位1%って予測されてたぞ笑

Murakami projected for 1st percentile lol

じゃあ、ドジャースへようこそってこと？
（ただの煽りだよ、まじで来るべきだとは思ってない）

So, welcome to the dodgers?
(I am just trolling/j/k - I don’t really think he should/would come to us)

それはキャリア初期の話だろ。正直クリス・デイビスとの比較はしっくりこないな、タイプの違う選手だし。

That was earlier in his career. I don't love the Chris Davis comp, tbh, pretty different profile.