「NPBで無双してから来ればいい」ダルビッシュ有が高校最速右腕・織田翔希の直接メジャー挑戦に助言！選択肢を巡り賛否【海外の反応】

それに、マイナーリーガーや国際協定の契約金よりも、NPBの方が圧倒的に稼げるんじゃないの？

And also won’t he make like insanely more money than a minor leaguer or international signing?

チームは25歳になるまで縛れるから、ほぼ10年近くかかるぞ。

Team can hold him up until he is 25 so thats almost a decade.

MLBからの関心をテコにして、大谷や佐々木がNPBの契約に盛り込んだような自動ポスティング条項を読売に入れるよう交渉できる。ダルビッシュ有も投稿本文でそう主張しているだろ。

お薦めのルートはその逆で、日本の球団と契約して4〜5年プレーし、自動ポスティング条項を組み込んで、マイナーを一切経験せずにメジャーへ直接飛び込むことだ。

He can use the MLB interest leverage to get Yomiuri to agree to add the same automatic posting clause Ohtani and Roki had in their NPB contracts. Darvish even argues this which is in the body of this post
His recommended path is the opposite: sign with a Japanese club, play four or five years, build in an automatic posting clause, and jump straight to the majors without ever seeing the minors.

投稿本文をしっかり読むなんてReddit住民に期待しちゃダメだろ。異端扱いされるぞ。

You can't expect redditors to read something in the post, that would be heresy.

すぐにMLBへ昇格できない限り、そのルートの方が早くMLB契約を手にできるよ。もちろん好きな道を選べばいいが、みんなの期待通りに成長するなら、NPBルートの方が良い経験になるし大型契約への近道だと思う。山本は25歳か26歳で渡米してあの契約だ。MLBの投手の多くは28歳までFAになれないからな。最終的には本人次第だけど。

※FA：フリーエージェント（移籍自由の権利）

Unless he gets called up immediately to MLB, he would receive his MLB contract faster going that way. He should do whatever he wants of course, but the NPB route will be better practice imo and it seems like the faster way to signing the big contract if he ends up as good as people think he is. Yamamoto left at 25 or 26 and look at what he got. Most pitchers don't get to free agency in MLB until 28. Ultimately up to him though.

山本はドラフト上位指名じゃなかった。甲子園にも出てないし、本格的に先発ローテに入ったのは3年目だ。一方、織田は高校のスーパースターだぞ。その年齢での実績が山本とはまるで違う。

Yamamoto was not a high-pick draft. He didn't play in Koshien. Heck he didnt get to be a regular starter until his third season. This guy is a high school superstar. He has the pedigree that Yoshi didnt have at that age.

たしか山本は4位指名だったと思う。
面白いことに、同じ年に今井がドラフト1位だったんだよな。

He was a 4th round pick I think
Interestingly Imai was first round pick in the same year

快適な環境でしっかり稼ぎながらね。
織田レベルのスターなら、佐々木みたいに早期ポスティングを要求する権利は十分あるだろう。

While making real money in a comfortable environment
Oda is a big enough star to probably demand some type of early posting, like Sasaki did.

選択肢Cもあるぞ。今すぐ契約金を稼ぎ、マイナーを経て4〜5年でメジャーに上がる。日本に残るより3〜5年早くメジャーに行けるわけだ。

There's also option C: get the bag now, go to the minors, and be in the majors in 4-5 years, 3-5 years quicker than he would be if he stayed in Japan.

NPBの球団は最初の数年間、新人に対してかなり手厚い環境を用意してくれる。プロの栄養士が管理する食事付きの快適な寮に入れてくれるから、過酷なアメリカのマイナーリーグより遥かに恵まれているよ。

NPB teams give new guys a pretty sweet setup for the first few years. They provide nice, comfortable dorms with meals planned by professional nutritionists, which is way better than the grind in the U.S. minor leagues.

それに、次世代の大スターとして大化けすれば日本で大量のスポンサー契約が得られる。マイナーの下積み時代なんて商業的な価値はほぼゼロだからね。

And that's not mentioning all the commercial opportunities in Japan if he blows up as the next big thing, as opposed to next to zero coming up through the minors.

そうだな、NPBでの実績とスーパースターとしての名声引っ提げて渡米した方が、MLBでの価値も一気に上がる。

Yeah he would instantly be more valuable in MLB if he comes over with a NPB reputation and the superstardom therein.

今はアメリカのマイナーでも住居が提供されるよ。
ルーキーリーグもMLBチームの春季キャンプ施設を使うから、あそこもかなり良い環境が整ってる。

You're provided housing in the minors in the US now as well.
And Rookie Ball is at MLB teams Spring Training complexes, so they've got pretty nice setups there too.

「18歳でその球速を投げるやつがアメリカや他国に何人いる？」って話だけど、ちなみに千葉ロッテは今年、同じ最速156km/hを出した高校生左腕を指名したぞ。去年も155km/hを出した別の高校生投手を指名してるしね。

How many kids in the US or elsewhere are posting up that kind of velocity at 18?
Chiba Lotte drafted a high school LHP this year who threw the same velo (156kmh), FWIW. Selected a different HS pitcher who hit 155 last year.

日本の投手ってアメリカに渡ると何故か必ず怪我するイメージがある。生存者バイアスかもしれないけど、キャリアの寿命を考えたらアメリカ行きが最善とは思えないな。

I mean Japanese pitchers for some reason always end up injured once they move over to the US. This could be survivorship bias but I don't think moving over to the US is the best decision in terms of longevity.

NPBって投手の球数管理はマシになったのか？昔はあり得ない球数を投げさせるので有名だっただろ。

Has the NPB gotten better at managing pitcher workloads? They were notorious for running up insane pitch counts.

佐々木の扱いを超有望株に対する今後のトレンドと見なすなら、答えはイエスだ。高校でもNPBでも、指導者たちは勝利を犠牲にしてまで佐々木の肩を休ませる選択をしたからね。

If you view the treatment of Roki as the trend moving forward for treatment of elite young prospects then yes. At every step of his career, his coaches in high school and NPB choose to rest roki’s arm to their detriment in results.

問題はNPBじゃなくて高校野球の段階だよ。NPBだって6人ローテーションを採用してるしな。

It's not NPB that's the issue. It's at the high school level. NPB uses 6 man rotations as well.

それは高校野球の大会の話だろ。プロに行くつもりがない選手も多いから、あれを最後の試合と思って全てを捧げるんだよ。
NPBは中6日ローテだし、ドーム球場が多いから移動や雨天中止も少なくてスケジュールが整ってる。山本や佐々木が渡米した時も、5人ローテで移動も多く身体への負担が大きいアメリカの負荷に耐えられるかが話題になってただろ。

You're thinking of the high school tournaments, in which many of the players treat as their final games anyway since they don't expect to go pro. They are often willing to leave it out on the field.
NPB uses six man rotations and more set schedules with less travel and rainouts (due to all the domes). When Yamamoto and Sasaki came over, a lot of the talk was how they'd have to handle a larger workload in America since it's 5 man rotations and more travel and training and strain on the body.

今のNPBじゃ極端な投球数なんて滅多に見かけないよ。

Insane pitch counts are very rare in NPB these days

登板間隔も長いし総イニング数も少ないから、腕にとってはNPBの方が絶対良いと思うけどね。

I mean they pitch much less frequently and end up with less innings in general which I would argue is better for the arms

同感だな、アメリカのシステムは甘くない。選手で溢れかえってるから、NPBを選ばずにこの道を行くと、才能があっても昇格すらできずに終わる選手が出そうだ。

I agree, the system in the US is rough. It's so flooded that I bet some good players would never even get called up if they do take this route instead of the NPB

そこが違うんだよ。織田には、大谷や佐々木が契約に盛り込んだのと同じ自動ポスティング条項を要求できる強みがある。もし指名した巨人がそれを提示しなければ、獲得できる確率は一気に下がるさ。

Oda has the leverage to ask for the same automatic posting clause Ohtani and Roki had in their contracts is the difference. If Yomiuri, the team who drafted him, doesn’t offer that their chances of signing him go down drastically.

日本ハムは大谷に二刀流での育成という大きな武器を提示できたから、渡米を待たせる説得力があった。
読売巨人には、渡米を遅らせた方が成長できるという仮定の話以外、織田に提示できる具体策が無いんだよな。

Nippon Ham Fighters had the leverage of offering Ohtani the opportunity to be a two-way player which was a huge factor in convincing him to wait to go to the MLB.
Yomiuri Giants don't really have anything concrete to offer Oda besides hypotheticals that it'll set him up better if he postpones an MLB debut.

そうなんだよ。巨人みたいなチームがMLB挑戦を後押ししてくれそうに思えるけど、実際はオリックス、西武、広島、日本ハム、楽天、ヤクルトみたいなチームから渡米する選手がほとんどだ。巨人は一番人気の球団なのにね。単なる「通過点」に成り下がりたくないというプライドが、長期的には首を絞めてると思う。

Yeah, it's paradoxical because you'd think a team like the Giants would set you up for an MLB posting quite well, but in reality, most players have come from smaller teams (in popularity, relatively speaking, giants are undoubtedly the biggest team) like Orix, Seibu, Carp, Nippon-Ham, Rakuten, Swallows and others, even though the Giants are the most popular team. I think their stubbornness about being more than simply a stepping stone is hurting them in the long run

だからこそダルビッシュ有は契約にポスティング条項を入れろとアドバイスしてるんだろ。

That's exactly why he's telling him to get the posting clause in his contract.

佐々木みたいに、希望する時期にポスティングできる裏契約を間違いなく交わすはずだよ。

He would absolutely get a side contract guaranteeing he is posted when he wants, just like Roki

山口俊だって契約に条項があっただけだぞ。

Yamaguchi just had a clause in his contract.

ポスティング条項を入れれば解決だな。

Get a posting clause

良い指摘だな。NPBは二軍しか見当たらないから、アメリカに比べて一軍への階段も競争もゆるやかだ。

Its a good point. NPB teams only have one farm team so the climb to the top club is way less steep with way less competition than in the US

ファームチームを複数持ってる球団もあるぞ。
まあ織田レベルなら、ルーキーイヤーから一軍で出番をもらえるだろうけど。

Several teams have multiple farm teams.
Someone like Oda would see first team time as a rookie, though

複数持ってるのはソフトバンクだけだろ。

It’s only Softbank.

巨人、広島、西武もあるぞ。巨人の三軍なんて定着してるし。

Kyojin, Carp, and Lions as well. Kyojin 3-gun is well established.

このレベルなら、来年の夏にはNPBの一軍で投げててもおかしくないな。

With his status, he could be pitching in the NPB by next summer

NPB、特に巨人ならスポンサー契約ですぐに大金を稼げる。球団側だって早い段階から高額年俸を払えるしね。
育成環境としても優れてるし、マイナーよりも早い段階で高いレベルの相手と戦えるぞ。

He can - and would - earn a ton immediately in endorsements in NPB, especially with the Kyojin. They can also pay him a very high salary almost immediately.
It's also a much better development environment and facing better competition earlier in NPB than MiLB.

まあ正直、今井は口だけで結果が伴わなかったからな。彼の発言や要望が自分の首を絞める結果になった。選ぶチームに日本人選手がいてほしくないなんて言うとは予想外だったし、山本に対抗心を燃やす強気な発言も大胆すぎたよ。

To be fair, Imai promised and didn't deliver. The statements he was making as well as the requests only bit him in the ass. Not wanting to have any Japanese players on the team he chooses wasn't one I was expecting. Also, the trash talk and wanting to compete against Yamamoto was bold.